THE Bureau of Meteorology has issued its long-range forecast for the 2025 summer season and it shows summer days and nights are likely to be warmer than average across most of Australia.
Nationally, summer rainfall is likely to be below average for parts of the west and inland parts of the east.
However, for much of the east coast and south, the summer forecast does not currently show a clear rainfall signal,
The long-range forecast says there are near-equal chances of above or below average rainfall.
The forecast will evolve over summer and the seasonal forecast will be updated every week.
There is an increased chance of unusually warm daytime temperatures for much of the north-west of Australia.
This includes large parts of Queensland and much of the south-east, including Tasmania.
There is an increased chance of unusually warm overnight temperatures across much of the country, especially in northern Australia.
The Indian Ocean Dipole is expected to return to neutral in December.
The latest conditions in the tropical Pacific indicate a relatively week La Niña event is underway.
This La Niña event is expected to be short-lived. BoM’s rainfall forecast currently suggests there will be little overall influence from this event.
Every year between October and April is Australia’s peak time for severe thunderstorms, tropical cyclones, flooding, heatwaves and bushfires.
Severe thunderstorms are more common from October to December.
These will bring the risk of heavy rainfall, damaging winds, large hail and the risk of flooding anywhere in Australia.
The Northern Australian wet season is currently underway where widespread rainfall is more likely and can lead to flooding.
Australia’s fire agencies advise there is an increased risk of fire for parts of Victoria, western and southern Western Australia, and parts of central northern New South Wales.
2025 summer long-range forecast
New South Wales and the ACT
Rainfall for December is likely to be below average for much of New South Wales and the ACT.
The forecast for January and February for most areas currently shows there are near-equal chances of above or below average rainfall.
The forecast for summer as a whole currently shows below average rainfall is likely for large parts of inland New South Wales.
Summer temperatures are likely to be above average during the day and overnight for much of New South Wales and the ACT.
There is an increased chance of unusually high overnight temperatures in the ACT and some central and eastern parts of New South Wales.
Queensland
Daytime temperatures are likely to be above average across Queensland. There is an increased chance of unusually warm daytime temperatures for large areas.
Warmer than usual nights are very likely for much of the state, with an increased chance of unusually warm overnight temperatures, especially in the north.
Summer rainfall is likely to be above average for parts of the far north and below average for western parts. There are roughly equal chances of above or below average rainfall in the east.
Victoria
Warmer than usual summer days and nights are likely across Victoria, with an increased chance of unusually high daytime temperatures for much of the state.
The forecast for December currently shows rainfall is likely to be below average in Victoria.
The forecast for January and February currently shows there are near-equal chances of above or below average rainfall.
Western Australia
The summer forecast currently shows that rainfall is likely to be below average for large parts of Western Australia. Above, below or near-average rainfall are all possible outcomes for the south.
Summer days and nights are likely to be warmer than usual throughout most of Western Australia.
There is an increased chance of unusually high daytime temperatures in the northern half of the state. There is an increased chance of unusually high night-time temperatures for the north, as well as the south-west.
South Australia
Summer days and nights are likely to be warmer than average throughout South Australia.
The forecast for December currently shows below average rainfall is likely for much of the state.
The forecast for January and February for most areas currently shows there are near-equal chances of above or below average rainfall.
Tasmania
Tasmania is very likely to have warmer than usual summer days and nights.
There is an increased chance of unusually high temperatures for much of the state.
The summer forecast currently shows there are near-equal chances of above or below average rainfall.
Northern Territory
The forecast for December currently shows below average rainfall is likely throughout the Territory.
The forecast for January and February for most areas currently shows there are near-equal chances of above or below average rainfall.
For summer as a whole, rainfall is likely to be below average for some parts of the west and north.
Summer days and nights are very likely to be warmer than usual for much of the Northern Territory.
There is an increased chance of unusually warm temperatures, especially in the north.
